WASHINGTON - The bird flu virus that has decimated chickens in Asia poses a serious threat to public health worldwide, a top U.S. disease control official said Monday, February 21, 2005.


If the avian flu virus mutates into a form that can spread between people, it could be as deadly as the viruses that killed millions during the world's three influenza pandemics last century.


Scientists expect the virus to mutate since its genes already appear to be changing rapidly, warned Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


She called it the "most important threat that we are facing right now."


Gerberding sounded the alarm in a plenary lecture at the American Association for the Advancement of Science's national meeting in Washington.


The H5N1 avian flu first appeared in Hong Kong in 1997. Since then, it's evolved the ability to jump from birds to people, killing an estimated 72 per cent of diagnosed victims, the CDC head said.


The H5N1 virus has caused at least 55 human illnesses in Thailand and Vietnam, including 42 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.


So far, cases of human-to-human transmission are rare in Asia, but the CDC's assessments suggest the threat is "very high."


"Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza," Gerberding told delegates.


If a pandemic emerges, it will be impossible to prepare a special bird flu vaccine, said Gerberding.


Vaccine supplies would need to be rationed in the U.S., despite efforts to boost supplies.


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